Near term outlook
Source: Interim report January–September 2024
The overall demand for consumer products is determined by the development of consumers’ purchasing power and their general purchasing behaviour. For the rest of the year, demand for fresh fibre paperboards is expected to be affected by the seasonal slowdown in December.
Metsä Board’s paperboard delivery volumes are expected to decrease slightly in October–December compared to the previous quarter (Q3/2024: 387,000 tonnes). Sales prices in local currencies are expected to remain stable.
Total costs excluding pulp costs are estimated to increase. Increases are expected especially in wood costs and fixed costs. There are less annual maintenance shutdowns at the mills in October–December than in the previous quarter.
Average sales prices of market pulp decreased in October. In the fourth quarter, demand for market pulp is expected to remain stable in Europe and North America. In China, demand has returned to normal after a very quiet third quarter. The demand and price situation for sawn timber is expected to remain at the current level.
In October–December 2024, exchange rate fluctuations, including the impact of hedges, will have a slightly negative impact on the operating result compared to July–September 2024 and a slightly negative impact compared to October–December 2023.
Regarding the gas explosion at Metsä Fibre’s bioproduct mill, negotiations continue with the insurance consortium to compensate the remaining estimated financial losses. Metsä Board does not have an estimate of the timing or extent of any future insurance compensation.
Result guidance for October–December 2024
Metsä Board’s comparable operating result in October–December 2024 is expected to be weaker than in July–September 2024.
The result guidance does not take into account the insurance compensation from the gas explosion at Metsä Fibre's bioproduct mill included in the comparable operating result for July–September, nor possible future insurance compensation for October–December. Metsä Board’s comparable operating result for July–September 2024 was EUR 42 million, including EUR 23 million in insurance compensation.